Elections In Georgia: At the Crossroads between Russia and Europe

Sixty-five elections were held around the globe in 2024.. What emerged from these polls was the realization that global democracy is at a critical juncture, especially with the disturbing trend of tyrants manipulating electoral systems to maintain their filthy grip on power. From Russia to Venezuela, from India to Bangladesh, from Georgia to Rwanda, elections in various nations ruled by authoritarian regimes have been marred by electoral fraud and voter intimidation or suppression. In many cases, these rulers have used state-controlled media, election law manipulation , and surveillance tactics to suppress opposition and limit free expression. The international community has watched as authoritarianism deepens, with proof of rigged or stolen elections becoming increasingly common. This new situation  represents not just a threat to the basic rights and freedoms of citizens all over the world, but to the very ideals of democratic governance that have long been a hallmark of the post-World War II global order. As 2024 comes to a close, it’s clear that the struggle for fair elections and democracy is far from over.

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Countries that once were democratic continued the descent into authoritarianism. In such countries, regimes use a range of tools to preserve or expand their power. Elections play a major role, as they can determine whether a country will strengthen its democratic institutions or continue democratic backsliding. One of the most notable in this 2024 election year was Georgia.

A small country in the Caucasus with fewer than 4 million people, Georgia gained its independence in 1991, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Since then, it has taken a pro-Western path, ratifying the Association Agreement with the European Union in 2016 and signing the Charter on Strategic Partnership with the United States. The European Union is Georgia’s main economic partner, having accounted for 27 percent of its total trade in 2020. The country also pursued a path to NATO: in 1992, just a year after it broke away from the USSR, Georgia joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council, and in 2001, it participated in its first joint military exercises with NATO.

All of that agitated Moscow, which still had a significant influence over the country. Georgia is heavily dependent on Russia economically: in 2022, for example, the revenue the country received from its economic cooperation with Russia amounted to 14.5 percent of its GDP. Georgia receives a substantial amount of revenues from remittances and tourism from Russia. It also has been exporting more than $600 million worth of goods each year for the last three years.

There are also strong cultural ties between Russia and Georgia. Georgia had been part of the Russian Empire since 1801 and later became one of the 15 republics that comprised the USSR. It played a prominent role in the Soviet Union, being an important hub for agriculture and food production. When the Union collapsed, a lot of Georgia’s factories, mines, and plants were shut down, leading to economic decline in the country’s rural areas. This decline, which is still felt more than 30 years after the collapse, fuels the feeling of nostalgia for the Soviet past among some of the people of older generations. A split emerges between Georgians who support closer ties with the European Union and United States, primarily in big cities, and more conservative segments of society, primarily in rural areas, who remember the communist era fondly.

Russia and Georgia have an extremely strained relationship. In the early 1990s, the Russian government supported separatists in Abkhazian, a Georgian region. In 2008, the Kremlin, with Vladimir Putin being in power for eight years already, invaded Georgia and essentially took control over 20% of its territory. It justified the aggression by pointing to Georgia’s rapprochement with NATO, especially after the latter welcomed Georgia’s aspirations for membership at the Bucharest Summit earlier that year. Ever since, the issue of the two regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, being taken away has been a painful one for most Georgians. These concerns were only amplified in 2014, when Putin’s regime moved in to seize Crimea from Ukraine.

Nonetheless, in 2012, the country held a parliamentary election, during which the Georgian Dream party won a majority of the seats in Parliament. While not openly pro-Russian, the party was established by Bidzina Ivanishvili, an oligarch with substantial connections to Russia. Ivanishvili became prime minister that same year while Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s pro-Western president, admitted defeat of his party. This signified a major shift in leadership, with the new leadership aiming to strike a more balanced policy of keeping good ties with the West while not provoking Moscow.

By 2023, however, the Georgian Dream party announced the plan to enact a law on foreign agents, which aimed to regulate organizations receiving more than 20 percent of their funds from abroad. The bill was eerily similar to the one passed in Putin’s Russia in 2012, which has since then been repeatedly expanded to strictly limit remaining freedom of speech in Russia and placed countless independent journalists, bloggers, and organizations in the foreign agents registry. In the last 12 years, the foreign agent law became one of the main tools of repression in Putin’s Russia.

It’s no surprise that when Georgians heard about the intentions, mass protests erupted. There were skirmishes between the protesters and police, and the protests put significant pressure on the government. The latter realized the measure is deeply unpopular, and in early March 2023, the ruling coalition announced the plans to scrap the bill. It marked a victory for the pro-democracy movement in the country, and it looked like the bill was abandoned for good.

A year later, however, the party reintroduced the bill, again causing backlash and mass protests. Tens of thousands of people joined the marches, but this time, the government was much more resolute in its breakup of protests. The human rights groups reported excessive use of force by the police, with officers violently beating and arbitrarily arresting protesters and using tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse peaceful demonstrations. The European Union and the United States condemned the bill and the way the government treated the protesters. The EU even cut funding to Georgia over human rights violations and, later that year, suspended the country’s accession process into the European Union. The US introduced sanctions targeting key players involved in human rights abuses.

Despite the pressure, the Georgian parliament managed to pass the bill. In June, it was signed into law by Georgia’s parliament, and in August, the law went into effect. The Kremlin tacitly welcomed the bill, with Putin’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticizing Western response, calling it duplicitous.

In October, amid heightened tensions, the country held parliamentary elections. The Georgian Dream party — now more authoritarian — received 54% of the vote, solidifying its position in power. The election campaign was marred with violations, including pressure on voters, vote buying, and misuse of public resources. International observers, including a mission by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, reported a series of violations and noted a “climate of hatred and intimidation.” The opposition immediately called for protests, rejecting the results, and the country’s president, Salome Zourabichvili, announced there was a Russian interference operation in the country.

The Putin regime largely celebrated the victory of the Georgian Dream. In the build-up to the elections, its state-controlled media disseminated narratives aimed at discrediting pro-Western politicians and fostering skepticism toward the European Union and NATO. Cybersecurity experts reported attempts to breach Georgian electoral infrastructure, raising concerns about the integrity of the voting process. There were also allegations of the Russian regime using financial resources to bribe political figures and businesspeople. These actions not only undermined Georgia’s democratic institutions but also tilted the balance in favor of the Georgian Dream Party, which retained its dominant position in Parliament.

So what will be the implications for Georgia and its future? For one, the country will most likely continue its democratic backsliding. The Georgian Dream now has 89 seats in parliament — just one less than what it had in 2020. This victory no doubt emboldens the party, which will most likely aim to solidify its hold on power and escalate its authoritarian practices in the next four years. We are likely to see more attacks on civil society, authoritarian laws being introduced, and anti-Western rhetoric, which has already been noticeable in the last year.

Second, the country’s vibrant NGO sector will take a hit. So far, Georgian civil society groups have relied heavily on Western financing, and with the new law in place, many of them would have to either limit their ties with foreign sources of funding or face repercussions. Some NGOs have already announced they’re not going to adhere to the law’s guidelines, but it’s unclear how long they’ll be able to withstand pressure, given that the government is becoming more aggressive in its approach.

Third, the country’s pro-democracy trajectory will most likely come to an end, at least for now. With new sanctions imposed against the country’s leadership and the EU halting negotiations over Georgia’s potential future in the European Union, it will be difficult, if not impossible, for Georgia to conduct rapprochement with key western institutions, despite strong support from its people. According to the latest polls, 65 percent of Georgians support the country becoming a member of NATO. The same goes for the EU, with almost 80 percent of the population supporting Georgia’s membership. While the Georgian Dream is at the helm in the country, however, meaningful negotiations on these issues are difficult to imagine.