For years, there has been one guiding throughline to U.S. policy regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It wasn’t necessarily about allowing Ukraine to reclaim all of its territory, and it certainly wasn’t about a defeat of Russia outright. Instead, the West’s strategy centered on convincing Russian President Vladimir Putin that his invasion of Ukraine would ultimately fail. If Putin could be convinced that his dreams of reconquering Ukraine would never succeed, then a path to negotiation—to a stable cease-fire and even to potential peace—could be found.
In a vacuum, it’s a sound strategy. As with any geopolitical tussle, there would theoretically come a point when even Putin would throw up his hands at the quagmire and realize he could not succeed. Maybe it would come after a certain number of Russian troops died. Maybe it would come after the Russian economy tumbled headlong off a cliff. Maybe it would come after yet another Russian client or ally elsewhere crumbled, with Moscow unable to do anything to help.
