Legitimizing Aggression in Russia’s 2024 Vote

Sixty-five elections were held around the globe in 2024.. What emerged from these polls was the realization that global democracy is at a critical juncture, especially with the disturbing trend of tyrants manipulating electoral systems to maintain their filthy grip on power. From Russia to Venezuela, from India to Bangladesh, from Georgia to Rwanda, elections in various nations ruled by authoritarian regimes have been marred by electoral fraud and voter intimidation or suppression. In many cases, these rulers have used state-controlled media, election law manipulation , and surveillance tactics to suppress opposition and limit free expression. The international community has watched as authoritarianism deepens, with proof of rigged or stolen elections becoming increasingly common. This new situation  represents not just a threat to the basic rights and freedoms of citizens all over the world, but to the very ideals of democratic governance that have long been a hallmark of the post-World War II global order. As 2024 comes to a close, it’s clear that the struggle for fair elections and democracy is far from over.

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Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia entered a period of profound political and economic change. Despite hopes for the establishment of democratic institutions, the country has never enjoyed genuine democracy. The early post-Soviet years were marked by political instability, economic crisis, and the continued influence of the former nomenklatura. Although elections were held regularly, they were often accompanied by manipulation, the use of administrative resources, and restrictions on the opposition’s access to the media. In the 1990s, power gradually concentrated in the hands of a narrow circle of politicians and oligarchs, which hindered the development of real political competition. Vladimir Putin’s rise to power in 2000 marked a further strengthening of authoritarian tendencies. Institutional reforms carried out under the slogan of stabilization led to a narrowing of the space for civil society and independent media. Thus, despite the formal holding of elections, which have been unfair/non-competitive and unfree, Russia has failed to build a genuine democratic system where the government is accountable to the people and the political rights and freedoms of citizens are protected.

Vladimir Putin’s re-election for a fifth term as president in March was a foregone conclusion.

With all viable opponents dead, imprisoned, exiled, or disqualified from running, the vote was little more than a carefully stage-managed exercise in self-legitimation. While the outcome was unsurprising, the ubiquity of likely electoral fraud and the regime’s blatant and increasingly sophisticated obstruction of independent electoral oversight marks a qualitative shift in how Russia organizes elections and will likely inspire other autocrats to follow suit. 

The country’s Central Electoral Commission (CEC) had long been a puppet of Putin’s, disqualifying opposition figures on arbitrary grounds and enabling, rather than checking, the falsification of results. To illustrate, in 2018, it barred Alexei Navalny from running for the presidency, citing a 2017 conviction for corruption widely believed to be politically motivated. Similarly, ahead of the 2024 election, the CEC disqualified Boris Nadezhdin, a former Duma member and the only candidate running on an anti-war platform, ostensibly due to irregularities in his supporting signatures. As a result, Putin ran virtually unopposed, save for handpicked contenders from the facade opposition the regime itself has cultivated to sustain an image of pluralism.

In addition to capturing the CEC, the regime has relentlessly obstructed civic or international observers’ efforts to safeguard the integrity of voting. In the 2021 parliamentary elections, it pressured Google and Apple to remove the Smart Voting application developed by Navalny’s team from their platforms (or risk criminal prosecution). The app would have allowed users to indicate who they voted for in real-time, potentially exposing discrepancies in the final precinct protocols. In addition, local watchdogs have reported that innovations such as three-day and electronic voting, introduced following a questionable 2020 referendum, have made it even easier to engineer final results while covering up evidence of irregularities. Lastly, 2024 was the first presidential election since 1993 in which Russia did not extend a formal invitation to oversee the vote to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). The OSCE sharply condemned the decision, characterizing it as a “critical point” in the country’s “democratic backsliding.”

Despite Putin’s firm grip on power, a handful of civic organizations and exiled dissidents persist in their attempts to expose the true extent of the regime’s electoral fraud. Sergei Shpilkin, an internationally renowned political scientist and pioneer of the “Shpilkin method,” mapped voter turnout against support for Putin in 2024 in 97% of all electoral precincts using official CEC data. Just as in the 2018 presidential election, he found a positive correlation between the turnout and support for Putin so robust that it was unlikely driven by normal electoral dynamics alone. His findings suggested that large-scale ballot-box stuffing and falsification of voting records were almost surely at work. The opposition daily Novaya Gazeta reported that according to Shpilkin’s statistical model, approximately 31.6 million of the 64.7 million votes Putin received were falsified. The citizen-led Golos Platform, on the other hand, has allowed thousands of voters to report observed irregularities in real time.

Shedding light on these discrepancies is paramount, not least because Putin has been quick to cite his heavily manipulated results in 2024 — 88% of the popular vote — as an indicator of universal approval of his repressive and unlawful policies, including the invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea.

Falsified elections in Russia are an integral part of a facade democracy that serves as a cover for the harsh authoritarian governance of the country by a narrow circle of security officials. These elections not only deprive citizens of the right to freely express their will but also legitimize the power of a regime that systematically suppresses opposition and independent electoral oversight. Such a system undermines the dignity of the Russian people and is a mockery of democratic principles.

Moreover, Russian authoritarianism is taking on a transnational character, infecting neighboring countries with the “disease” of tyranny and setting an example for other autocrats. This underscores the danger that Russia’s current political trajectory poses not only to its own citizens but also to regional and global democracy.

Without real mechanisms of political competition and protection of civil liberties, Russia will continue to drift away from the principles of justice and transparency. The aspiration to finally achieve democracy, where every citizen’s voice is heard, is critically important for the country’s future and its role in the international community. Only through respect for rights and freedoms can sustainable development and the prosperity of society be ensured.