Election Watch Tunisia: Tunisia’s Democratic Dismantling

Tunisian President Kais Saied won yet another election on Oct. 6, securing an overwhelming 90.7% of the vote, up from 73% since his previous win in 2019. His win, however, is anything but surprising, considering that he’s dismantled nearly all forms of democratic checks to his power. 

His win marks a significant regression in Tunisia’s decade-long pursuit of democratic reform sparked by the 2010 Jasmine Revolution. The Tunisian people are clearly disillusioned by the regime’s charade of free and fair elections. The proof is in the October voter turnout: 27.7% of Tunisia’s 9.7 million electorate participated, the lowest voter turnout since the country gained independence from France nearly seven decades ago. 

Despite this expected win, Saied’s rise to power wasn’t expected. Given his position as an outsider, one would think he would prioritize forming a charismatic political image. Rather than this, however, he promoted a rigid commitment to the rule of law — earning him a reputation as an uncompromising adherent to the rule of law. 

During the 2019 presidential elections, his campaign appealed to mounting public frustration over the suffocating presence of Tunisia’s political elites, whose deadlock in parliament stifled substantive reforms, and he vowed to end the country’s rampant corruption. Saied’s victory — which made him the second democratically elected president following the deposition of  Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in 2011 — suggested a turning point for Tunisia and an end to the remains of Ben Ali’s regime. Saied promised to establish “a new Tunisia” and build on the growing reforms made following the Jasmine Revolution.

But Saied exceeded his stringent reputation by dismantling democratic institutions, which ushered in a new era of authoritarianism with all of his rules and dictates.

On July 25, 2021, he executed a “self-coup,”  marking the onset of his power grab. Under the guise of a self-imposed “state of emergency,” he suspended parliament, dismissed the prime minister, and announced his intent to control the judiciary. This decision was later consolidated by Saied’s announcement that he would rule by presidential decree. 

Roughly a year later, in June, Saied granted himself the authority to unilaterally dismiss judges and prosecutors deemed threats to “public security” or to the country’s “supreme interests.” On the same day, he dismissed 57 judges and prosecutors, accusing the judges of obstructing terrorism-related investigations, financial corruption, “moral corruption,” and “adultery” including senior judges and prosecutors. The Tunis Administrative Tribunal ordered the reinstatement of 49 of the arbitrarily dismissed judges in August 2022. And the regime-affiliated Ministry of Justice has yet to reinstate any of these judges.

Saied’s actions were compounded in July 2022 with the enactment of a new constitution through a referendum in which only 31% of voters participated. This new constitution significantly shifted power from parliament to the presidency, expanding Saied’s authority and removing crucial checks and balances, including the ability to impeach the president. Though the referendum upheld the facade of democracy, the subsequent shift in power resulting in this new constitution further fortified Saied’s ironclad grip on the country.

In the lead up to the Tunisian parliamentary elections, Saied implemented Decree 2022-55 and hindered opposition parties’ ability to campaign effectively, banning candidates from representing political parties and prohibiting public financing of election campaigns. Key opposition groups largely boycotted the elections, marking an approximately 11% voter turnout in the first round and in the run offs. 

The lead-up to the 2024 election displayed the extent to which democratic processes had deteriorated under the regime. Out of 17 potential candidates, Tunisia’s electoral body, the Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE), approved only two to run against Saied. That same day, one of these approved candidates, Ayachi Zammel, was imprisoned and later sentenced to 12 years on charges related to falsifying signatures for his candidacy. This move was widely perceived as politically motivated, especially in light of the administrative court’s decision to reinstate three other candidates, a ruling that ISIE claimed it did not receive within legal deadlines.

Beyond these institutional attacks, Saied has routinely cracked down on dissent, targeting civil society leaders, journalists, and opposition figures. He has imprisoned key voices of dissent such as anti-racism activist Saadia Mosbah, lawyer Sonia Dahmani, and even the country’s former head of the National Truth Commission, Sihem Bensedrine.  

Saied has also weaponized growing tensions between migrants and Tunisians as a means of deflecting accountability for the country’s growing economic challenges. In a speech, Saied denounced the “hordes” of irregular migrants, who brought “violence, crime, and unacceptable practices,” and accused them of  participating in a conspiratorial plan to “change the country’s demographic makeup.” The regime acted on these sentiments by apprehending hundreds of migrants and asylum seekers and dropping them at Tunisia’s desert border with Algeria on top of officials arbitrarily detaining and physically assaulting them. 

As Tunisia nears the 14th anniversary of street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation — which sparked the Jasmine Revolution and the regional Arab Spring movement — its previous democratic aspirations may appear out of reach. Nevertheless, the 2024 election and democratic deficit should not be taken as a sign of public indifference, but as a call to reignite momentum against the threats posed by Saied’s regime. And if history is any indication, change is possible, and the people of Tunisia still have the potential to pursue the “new Tunisia” they were once promised.

Written by HRF staff.